Land use/land cover (LULC) is an important indicator of landscape and regional transformation, reflecting the interacting influences of environmental, demographic and socio-economic processes on human-environment systems [1]. Rapid urbanisation, infrastructure development and changing land-use practices continuously modify the spatial distribution of built-up areas, agriculture, vegetation, waterbodies and barren land, making the assessment of LULC dynamics important for understanding landscape transformation and supporting sustainable land-use planning. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques provide effective means for mapping, monitoring and analysing LULC changes across different spatial and temporal scales [2-4] 

Multi-temporal LULC assessment has been widely applied to examine urban expansion and associated changes in surrounding rural and agricultural landscapes. Studies have demonstrated the usefulness of geospatial techniques for analysing urban growth, sprawl and land transformation [5], with recent applications in Bengaluru Rural [6], Mysore taluk [7], Mysuru Local Planning District [8], Rewari [9], Sonipat-Kundli [10] and Thoothukudi [11]. Such studies indicate that urban expansion can substantially transform agriculture, vegetation, waterbodies and barren land, particularly in rapidly developing urban regions. The increasing availability of multi-temporal satellite data has further strengthened the scope for analysing the magnitude, direction and spatial pattern of these transformations.

Recent LULC research has also increasingly incorporated future land-use projection to move beyond retrospective assessment towards anticipating potential development pressures. Cellular-automata-based approaches, particularly the SLEUTH framework, have been widely used for simulating historical urbanisation and exploring future urban-growth scenarios [12]. Recent applications integrating cellular automata, GIS and satellite-derived LULC data have demonstrated the potential of predictive modelling for assessing future built-up dynamics and supporting evidence-based spatial planning [13-15].

The Shivamogga-Bhadravati Local Planning Area (LPA), encompassing Shivamogga, Bhadravati and their surrounding areas, represents an important urban-regional landscape in Karnataka where continuing urban development may influence adjoining agricultural, vegetated and other land-cover categories. Despite its planning significance, limited attention has been given to its long-term LULC transformation and potential future land-use scenario. Therefore, the present study analyses the spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC in the Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA from 1995 to 2025 and projects the potential LULC scenario for 2035. Five major LULC classes including agriculture, built-up, waterbody, vegetation and barren land are considered to examine their spatial distribution and temporal changes. The integration of historical LULC assessment with future projection provides a forward-looking spatial perspective on potential land-use transformation and contributes to sustainable and spatially informed planning of the Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA.

The Shivamogga-Bhadravati Local Planning Area (LPA) is an important urban and regional planning area in Shivamogga district of Karnataka, encompassing the cities of Shivamogga and Bhadravati and their surrounding settlements. The LPA extends between 13.78°-14.03° N latitude and 75.44°-75.78° E longitude and covers an area of approximately 434.06 km². The region comprises urban settlements, agricultural land, vegetation and diverse rural landscapes, along with a network of rivers, streams, tanks and reservoirs. The Tunga River is the major river system flowing through Shivamogga, while the Bhadra River is an important watercourse associated with Bhadravati. Numerous tanks and smaller waterbodies are distributed across the LPA and contribute to irrigation, domestic water supply, agriculture and local ecological functions, making water resources an important component of the region’s physical landscape.

Multitemporal satellite imagery for 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025 was used to assess LULC dynamics in the Shivamogga-Bhadravati Local Planning Area (LPA). The images were processed within the LPA boundary and classified using supervised classification in QGIS into five LULC classes: agriculture, built-up, waterbody, vegetation and barren land. Training samples were selected based on the spectral and spatial characteristics of the respective classes. Classification accuracy was assessed using reference samples, with Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa Coefficient (KC) used to evaluate classification reliability [Table. 1].

Table 1: Satellite data and accuracy assessment of LULC classification

The area of each LULC class was calculated in km², and temporal changes were evaluated using net change and percentage change.

The net change was calculated as:

Net Change = A2025 - A1995

and percentage change as:

The potential LULC scenario for 2035 was forecast using a CA-based SLEUTH model, considering the historical spatial patterns of land-use and land-cover change. Multi-temporal LULC datasets were used to calibrate the model and determine the spatial growth characteristics and transition behaviour of different LULC classes. The modelling incorporated relevant spatial input layers, including historical LULC maps, built-up and non-built-up areas, road-network data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, and existing spatial development patterns. The model considered the influence of existing land-use patterns, accessibility, topographic conditions, neighbourhood effects, and historical transition trends in allocating future LULC changes. Based on the calibrated parameters and observed historical changes, the model was used to simulate the potential spatial distribution of different LULC classes for the target year 2035.

The results present the spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC in the Shivamogga-Bhadravati Local Planning Area based on the classified LULC maps and area statistics. The analysis highlights the changes in major LULC classes, their temporal trends and net changes, along with the projected LULC distribution for 2035. The observed historical patterns and projected changes are discussed to understand the ongoing landscape transformation and the potential direction of future land-use change.

The LULC maps for 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025 [Fig. 2] [Fig. 3][Fig. 4] [Fig. 5] reveal clear changes in the spatial composition of the study area. The major transformation was characterised by an expansion of agricultural and built-up land and a substantial reduction in barren land, while vegetation and waterbody areas showed comparatively limited changes. The corresponding LULC statistics and temporal trends are presented in [Table. 2] and [Fig. 7] & [Fig. 8].

Agricultural land increased from 116.86 km² in 1995 to 160.51 km² in 2025, representing a net increase of 43.65 km² (37.4%). In contrast, barren land recorded the largest absolute decline, decreasing from 142.98 km² in 1995 to 31.32 km² in 2025, a reduction of 111.66 km² (78.1%). 

Table 2: LULC Statistics in Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA (1995-2025)

The increase was particularly pronounced during 1995-2005, followed by more gradual growth in the subsequent periods. Built-up land exhibited the strongest relative expansion, increasing from 31.88 km² to 103.56 km², corresponding to a net increase of 71.68 km² (224.8%). The continued increase in built-up area indicates substantial expansion of developed land within the LPA over the three decades. Vegetation remained comparatively stable, with a small decline from 133.56 km² to 130.76 km² (2.1%), while waterbody area decreased from 8.78 km² to 7.91 km² (9.9%).

Table 3: Projected LULC distribution of the Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA, 2035

The contrasting temporal trajectories demonstrate a considerable restructuring of the LPA's land-use composition, particularly through the expansion of built-up and agricultural areas and the reduction of barren land.

The CA-based SLEUTH model projection provides an indication of the potential future LULC configuration of the Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA (Fig. 6; Table 3). The projected scenario indicates a continued increase in built-up land, which is expected to rise from 103.56 km² in 2025 to 123.73 km² in 2035, representing an increase of 20.17 km². Agricultural land is projected to decline by 10.56 km², from 160.51 km² to 149.95 km², while barren land is projected to decrease by 8.18 km², from 31.32 km² to 23.14 km². Vegetation is projected to show a relatively small decline of 1.53 km², from 130.76 km² to 129.23 km². Waterbody area is projected to show a marginal increase of 0.10 km², from 7.91 km² to 8.01 km². Overall, the projected changes suggest that the expansion of built-up land is likely to remain the dominant component of future LULC transformation within the planning area, accompanied primarily by reductions in agricultural and barren land.

The historical assessment and 2035 projection together indicate a continuing transformation in the LULC structure of the study area. The substantial historical growth of built-up land, together with its projected increase of 20.17 km² by 2035, highlights the likelihood of continued development pressure within the planning area. At the same time, the projected reduction in agricultural land and barren land, along with the relatively minor decline in vegetation, emphasizes the need for careful management of land resources and development expansion. The projected 2035 scenario therefore provides a forward-looking spatial basis for anticipating future land-use changes and supporting sustainable and informed planning decisions in the LPA.

The study demonstrates substantial transformation in the LULC structure of the Shivamogga-Bhadravati Local Planning Area over the three decades from 1995 to 2025. The analysis identified contrasting trajectories among the major LULC classes, with built-up and agricultural areas showing expansion and barren land undergoing a pronounced decline, while vegetation and waterbodies exhibited comparatively limited changes. These findings establish the changing spatial character of the LPA and provide a baseline for assessing its future land-use requirements.

The 2035 SLEUTH-based projection indicates the potential continuation of built-up expansion, accompanied by further changes in agricultural and barren land. The integration of historical LULC assessment with future projection strengthens the study by providing both a retrospective understanding of landscape transformation and a forward-looking perspective on potential development pressures.

The findings highlight the importance of integrated and periodically updated LULC monitoring for the Shivamogga-Bhadravati LPA. Future planning should incorporate projected development patterns while maintaining agricultural land and environmentally important areas.